Gold prices rose Friday, hovering just below record highs, as signs of a cooling U.S. labor market reinforced bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut next week despite slightly stronger inflation data.
At 06:10 ET (10:10 GMT), Spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,647.45 per ounce, not far from the all-time high of $3,673.95 touched earlier this week, and U.S. Gold Futures expiring in December also climbed 0.3% to $3,685.82/oz.
Bullion was set to rise approaching 2% this week, heading for its fourth consecutive weekly jump. The metal has gained nearly 40% year-to-date, helped by central bank buying and safe-haven demand amid trade uncertainties over President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.
Fed rate cut bets remain firm
Data on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, lifting annual inflation to 2.9%, the highest in seven months.
But the U.S. labor market showed further signs of weakness, with weekly jobless claims climbing to their highest in nearly four years and payroll growth slowing.
Markets grew more confident of imminent policy easing after weaker-than-expected U.S. producer price data and large revisions to official jobs figures reinforced signs of a cooling labour market.
Markets now see almost a full chance of a cut at the Sept. 16-17 policy meeting, with some investors betting on a more aggressive easing path.
UBS lifts gold forecasts
UBS has raised its gold price forecasts as the precious metal extends its strong rally, supported by expectations of U.S. rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
The Swiss bank now sees gold reaching $3,800 an ounce by the end of 2025, up from its prior $3,500 forecast, and $3,900 by mid-2026 versus $3,700 previously.
UBS pointed to recent downside surprises in U.S. payroll data, which have driven a rapid repricing of Federal Reserve policy expectations.
