Goldman Sachs confirmed that the recent disruptions in the copper market are pushing prices towards recording levels higher than previous expectations. The bank's latest estimates indicated that the price of copper on the London Metal Exchange would reach around $9,700 per ton by December 2025, but current developments may open the door for prices to stabilize within a range of $10,200 to $10,500 per ton.
Goldman Sachs believes that the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, one of the largest copper mines in the world, will experience a production loss ranging between 250,000 and 260,000 tons during 2025, compared to previous forecasts of 700,000 tons. This decline in supply adds upward pressure on global prices.
After accounting for these disruptions, the bank has lowered its global copper mine supply forecasts for the second half of 2025 by 160,000 tons, and it has cut its forecasts for 2026 by 200,000 tons. This has led to a revision of its expectations for copper mine production growth in 2025 and 2026 to +0.2% and +1.9%, respectively, compared to previous estimates of +0.8% and +2.2%.
Experts assert that the copper market remains sensitive to any disruptions in production, due to its vital role in the electrical, renewable energy, and electric vehicle industries. With global demand for this strategic metal rising, any shortfall in supply could push prices to new record levels.
Analysts also believe that the continued tensions in global supply chains, along with economic recovery in certain areas, could further increase demand for copper, enhancing bullish expectations. Given these factors, the London Metal Exchange remains under scrutiny, as investors monitor copper movement as an important indicator of global economic momentum.
