Tesla’s push into autonomous driving reached a critical milestone after the company removed safety drivers from part of its robotaxi fleet in Austin, a development Morgan Stanley says could accelerate the rollout of driverless services across the United States.
Access deep analyst research on InvestingPro — 55% off The move marks “a pivotal moment in proving out its vision-only approach to autonomy,” Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said in a note to clients.
Tesla confirmed it has begun operating “unsupervised vehicles publicly available within the Austin fleet,” with plans to increase the ratio of fully driverless cars over time.
In comments cited by Morgan Stanley, CEO Elon Musk told analysts on the 3Q call: “We do expect to have no safety drivers in the car in Austin within a few months.
“And then we do expect to be operating Robotaxi in, I think, about 8 to 10 metro areas by the end of the year.”
Morgan Stanley said it had previously assumed Tesla would remove the safety driver in early 2026, calling the earlier-than-expected milestone one of the “most critical” in validating the company’s robotaxi ambitions and its $125-per-share valuation framework.
The bank expects rapid scaling from here. Percoco wrote that Tesla “could make significant progress in 2026 with 1,000 robotaxis on the road by year-end,” rising to 30,000 by 2030 and potentially 5 million by 2040.
If Tesla expands the program into new metro areas and shows improving safety data, Morgan Stanley believes the company could meaningfully challenge the autonomous-vehicle industry’s conventional assumptions, particularly with its optical-only system.
