Goldman Sachs has trimmed its 2026 copper price forecast to an average of $12,650 per tonne from $12,850 previously, citing softer demand expectations amid weaker global economic growth, though it maintained a bullish long-term outlook driven by electrification.
Get premium commodities market insight on InvestingPro The bank now expects the global copper market to run a surplus of 490,000 tonnes this year, up from its prior estimate of 380,000 tonnes, after cutting its global refined copper demand growth forecast to 1.6% year-on-year from 2%. The revision follows Goldman’s economists projecting a 0.4 percentage point hit to global GDP growth from the energy price shock stemming from disruptions in the Middle East.
The demand cut is smaller than the one the bank applied to aluminium, which it attributed to copper’s increasingly structural role in the global economy.
"This is a smaller demand revision than aluminium because of the increasingly strategic and structural nature of copper demand, making it less sensitive to global economic cycles," analysts led by Aurelia Waltham said.
In the near term, the team flagged continued price volatility but said it expects copper to find support if conditions stabilise.
Under its base case, which assumes that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz would begin recovering from mid-April, the bank forecasts copper to average $12,700 in the second quarter of 2026, before drifting down to its fair value estimate of $12,000 in the second half of the year.
Goldman also highlighted a risk that current prices are not supported by fundamentals. The copper price, even after a correction in March, continues to trade well above the bank’s 2026 fair value estimate of around $11,100, leaving it "vulnerable to another move lower should the economic outlook deteriorate and investors de-risk."
Moreover, the analysts flagged that potential supply disruptions from the Middle East have not been factored into their forecasts. For instance, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which relies on sulfur shipped through the Strait of Hormuz for a key production process, accounts for roughly 15% of global copper mine production.
The analysts said industry feedback suggests DRC producers hold up to three months of sulfuric acid inventory, meaning a short disruption would likely have limited impact, but a prolonged one could tighten supply and erode the expected surplus.
Beyond the near term, Goldman kept its long-run forecast intact, projecting copper prices will rise to $15,000 by 2035. The analysts argued that Middle East tensions are likely to reinforce the electrification theme, with grid and energy infrastructure accounting for 60% of global copper demand growth in its forecasts through 2030.
