Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts, citing a slower-than-expected recovery in Persian Gulf crude exports following the disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Track the latest commodity market forecasts on InvestingPro The bank now sees Brent crude averaging $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, up from a prior forecast of $80, and lifted its WTI estimate to $83 from $75. Forecasts for 2027 were also revised higher, to $85 for Brent and $80 for WTI.
Brent and WTI futures were trading at $107.60 and $96.24, respectively, by 06:36 GMT on Monday.
The upgrades reflect Goldman’s revised assumption that Gulf exports will not normalize until end-June — pushed back from a mid-May estimate in its previous note — alongside a slower production recovery.
"We estimate that 14.5mb/d of Persian Gulf crude production losses are driving global oil inventories to draw at a record 11-12mb/d pace in April," strategists led by Daan Struyven said in a note.
They said the market has swung from a 1.8 million barrel per day surplus in 2025 to a record 9.6 million barrel per day deficit in the second quarter of 2026, with OECD commercial stocks drawing at 2.2 million barrels per day.
Global demand is expected to fall 1.7 million barrels per day year-on-year in the second quarter, pressured by a surge in refined product prices and some rationing, with the steepest demand downgrades concentrated in the Middle East, South Korea, Japan, and price-sensitive markets in Africa.
Supply outside the Gulf is seen rising only modestly, with Goldman forecasting a combined 1 million barrel per day increase from Russia, the United States, and Kazakhstan. The strategists noted that the U.S. supply response has been restrained by shale capital discipline, low drilled-but-uncompleted well inventories, and market expectations that the Hormuz disruption will be short-lived.
The bank sees risks to its base case as tilted to the upside. In an adverse scenario, where Gulf exports normalize only by end-July, Brent in the fourth quarter would average just over $100.
A severely adverse scenario — involving end-July normalization and 2.5 million barrels per day of permanent capacity scarring — would push Brent to nearly $120.
Only in a benign scenario, with mid-June normalization and no lasting capacity damage, would prices fall just below $80.
Strategists also flagged that global visible oil inventories are likely to hit their lowest level since at least 2018 even under the benign scenario, raising the prospect of non-linear price increases should stocks fall to "critically low levels." U.S. oil export restrictions, while not Goldman’s base case, were cited as an additional tail risk.
